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THE ASTRONOMER Electronic Circular No 1098     1996 July 15 19.38UT
Ed:Guy M Hurst, 16,Westminster Close, Kempshott Rise,  Basingstoke,
Hants, RG22 4PP,England.Telephone/FAX(01256)471074Int:+441256471074
INTERNET: GUY@TAHQ.DEMON.CO.UK             GMH at AST.STAR.RL.AC.UK
WORLD WIDE WEB                    http://www.demon.co.uk/astronomer
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KAPPA PAVONIDS (=Q1996/048)
Since the alert issued earlier today that according to a report
from Jonathan Shanklin this meteor shower might show activity on
July 16/17, Reindeer Bouma has provided further information
originally prepared by P.Jenniskens, NASA/Ames Research Center:

ABSTRACT - A meteor stream that was observed by two Australian
observers in 1986 may return in 1996. The planets are in a
favourable configuration again for a trail of dust to intersect
the Earth's orbit. As a result, there may be an outburst of
kappa-Pavonids, that will last only a little over an hour and
which may peak at 1 meteor/minute, somewhere between 22h and
04h UT  in the night of July 16/17, 1996.
Because of the southern declination of the stream, best observing
conditions are from eastern South America and South Africa.

In 1986, the stream of kappa-Pavonids produced a brief outburst
in the evening of July 17 (Wood 1986). Observers Niel Inwood and
Paul Stacy recorded 26 and 30 kappa-Pavonids respectively, and 4
and 6 sporadic meteors, between 11:50 and 13:00 UT that night
(from Karnet 116.1E,-32.2S). The observing conditions were not
perfect: the Moon was almost in the zenith and 80 percent
illuminated.
The meteors were reported to be slow (V = 20-25 km/s?) and
radiated from a (corrected) radiant at RA,DEC = 275,-67. 14% of
the meteors left a persistent train. The peak Zenith Hourly Rate
may have been about ZHR = 60 (Jenniskens 1995).

This year, in the night of July 16/17 1996, the outburst may occur
again, because the reflex motion of the Sun (which is thought to
reflect the sum of planetary perturbations on a trail of dust -
Jenniskens 1996) is nearly the same as in 1986. A similar forecast
for the alpha-Monocerotid outburst last November proved correct. I
should warn, however, that this kappa-Pavonid stream has only been
reported once and it is not certain that the stream is of
"far-comet" type. Also, even if it is of far-comet type, there may
be some amount of chance involved for the trail to intersect the
Earth's path.
This year's observing conditions are best for eastern South
America, although the outburst can also be observed from South
Africa. The outburst is expected between solar longitude 114.00 and
114.23 in Eq. 1950.0 (22-04 UT),
with a maximum at about 114.10-114.13 (about 01 UT), if the peak is
at the same time as in 1986. The Moon will not disturb: it is a new
Moon. Observers who want to participate in this effort can contact
the author at peter@max.arc.nasa.gov.

Guy M Hurst